Weather update: moderate to heavy rainfall and possible thunderstorms on Friday

    Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday as a strong upper level storm system moves onto the Southern Plains to across the Four- State region.

       An upper-level system moving from west to
       east across the region on Friday should allow for moderate instability
       to develop by late afternoon across parts of eastern Oklahoma and
       east Texas. This will combine with strong deep-layer shear profiles of
       60 to 80 kt  -  resulting in strong
       winds and putting storms into a nearly continuous line. Wind
       damage will be possible along the leading edge of this
       line with the greatest potential in the Arklatex during the evening.
        In addition, forecast soundings
       across the Arklatex Friday evening show low-level shear profiles
       sufficient for tornadoes. Supercells that develop in the line or
       ahead of the line could be accompanied by a tornado threat. Isolated
       large hail may also occur with cells that rotate. An isolated wind
       damage and hail threat will be possible in much of the overnight
       period as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River.

    This translates to:

    Wind damage, isolated large hail, and a tornado threat is forecast
    Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern Plains,
      Arklatex, and Lower Mississippi Valley. The storm will be capable of
    producing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and we could see rainfall
    totals in the two inch range.

     

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